Article originally posted in The State.
New poll shows Education Superintendent handily winning primary, runoff elections next June
(COLUMBIA) The campaign of State Superintendent of Education Jim Rex today released poll results showing Rex with a double-digit lead over his closest Democratic primary competitor in the race for Governor. Subsequently, Rex holds a commanding lead in runoff scenarios that would take place two weeks later, provided no candidate exceeds fifty percent in the first round of voting in next June’s Democratic primary.
“Jim Rex is clearly the frontrunner among the Democrats in the race for Governor. The other candidates will have to spend vast amounts of money just to get what we’ve already got,” said campaign director Zeke Stokes.
The poll, conducted October 23-26, shows Rex beginning the campaign with a significant advantage over the rest of the field in statewide name identification and favorability rating. Rex’s name is recognized by over half of the Democratic Primary electorate – and the vast majority of those voters rate Rex favorably.
In a Democratic Primary vote preference for Governor, Jim Rex begins with a significant lead over his closest competitor. Among Democratic Primary voters, Rex leads the other candidates by double-digit margins receiving 25 percent of the vote, to State Senator Vincent Sheheen’s 10 percent. Charleston trial attorney Mullins McLeod and Columbia special interest lobbyist Dwight Drake are in low single digits at 4 and 3 percent respectively.
In runoff scenarios, Rex’s lead is even more commanding. In a runoff with Sheheen, Rex leads 50 percent to 14 percent. Against Drake, Rex leads 48 percent to 17 percent.
“We are encouraged by these numbers,” said Stokes. “It’s clear that even though most of these candidates entered the race many months ago, their campaigns have not caught fire among Democratic Party primary voters. Voters have been waiting on a winner to enter this race, and Jim Rex will not disappoint them.”
Great news! Keep it up!
Dear Jim Rex,
Was this a Whites Only poll?
Goodness! REX 25, SHEHEEN 19, McLEOD 4, DRAKE 3
Where is Senator Ford? 0? 0.02? .81? You are aware that Senator Ford is running in this race, aren’t you? Come on! He had to get something? Are you saying out of all the voters the Hamilton polled for you in a random sample of likely Democratic voters in South Carolina (at least 50% of which would have to be black) not one or 2 or 3 % preferred Senator Ford in this poll? I find that impossible to believe.
Or did Bill Hamilton and your bright campaign gurus decide that Robert Ford was not going to be a factor in this primary and therefore leave him out of the poll. That would be even more difficult to swallow. Please get back to me. Thanks,
O’Neal Compton
Full poll memo here:
MEMORANDUM
TO: Rex 2010
FROM: Hamilton Campaigns
DATE: October 27, 2009
RE: Polling in the South Carolina Democratic Primary1
The following memo is based on a survey of 400 registered voters who are likely to vote in the June 2010 Democratic Primary election in South Carolina. Hamilton Campaigns conducted telephone interviewing October 23-26, 2009. The margin of error for a sample of this size is ±4.9 percentage points, at the 95% confidence level.
Jim Rex is the clear frontrunner in the Democratic Primary election for Governor in South Carolina. Rex maintains a double-digit vote lead over his opponents, has a valuable name identification advantage, and a dominating lead in run-off scenarios – Jim Rex begins this campaign in a strong position to become the Democratic nominee for Governor.
Key Findings
Rex begins with an advantage over the rest of the field in statewide name identification and favorability rating. Rex’s name is recognized by over half of the Democratic Primary electorate – and the vast majority of those voters rate Rex
favorably.
Favorability Rating of Candidates
Candidate Favorable Unfavorable Cannot rate
Jim Rex 41% 14% 44%
Robert Ford 32% 12% 56%
Vince Sheheen 23% 6% 71%
Dwight Drake 17% 5% 78%
Mullins McLeod 16% 6% 78%
In a Democratic Primary vote preference for Governor, Jim Rex begins with a significant lead over his closest competitor. Among Democratic Primary voters, Rex leads the second place candidate by a double-digit margin and leads the other
candidates by more than a 2-to-1 margin.
Vote Preference for Governor
Candidate %
Jim Rex 25%
Robert Ford 15%
Vince Sheheen 10%
Mullins McLeod 4%
Dwight Drake 3%
Undecided 43%
Rex is in a commanding position even when facing run-off scenarios against Vince Sheheen or Dwight Drake. Rex’s vote share hovers at the 50% mark in a run-off vote preference against Sheheen or Drake. Run-off scenarios against other
candidates were not tested in this poll.
Run-off Vote Preference for Governor
Candidate %
Jim Rex 50%
Vince Sheheen 14%
Undecided 36%
Jim Rex 48%
Dwight Drake 17%
Undecided 36%
Bottom Line
The poll findings clearly show Jim Rex to be the frontrunner in the Democratic race for Governor. His high level of name identification is a significant strategic and financial
advantage at the start of this race. His double-digit vote lead and dominating performance in run-off scenarios, places the rest of the field in a position of playing
catch-up to Rex. The other candidates will need to raise and spend a large amount of their campaign funds in order to match Rex’s current name identification, or they will be
forced to run a highly negative campaign that will make it more difficult for Democrats to be successful next November. In either scenario, Rex is currently the candidate to beat
in the 2010 Democratic Primary.