As we all understand, Republicans are about to have a pretty good election in November. Much of the GOP excitement revolves around congressional races that could unseat “red-state” Democrats who won during the 2006 or 2008 cycles, along with a number of incumbents (some of whom have decided to retire) who have been around much longer. Ground zero for the Republican tsunami is, of course, the Deep South, where in some areas John McCain did better in 2008 than George W. Bush did in 2004, and where every available indicator shows the president to be very unpopular among white voters.

But beneath this storyline, some odd and counterintuitive things are going on. In three Deep South states, Georgia, Alabama, and South Carolina, Democrats have a decent chance of retaking long-lost governorships, in part because of infighting among Republican candidates, and in part because Republican rule in those states has not been terribly successful or popular. It’s far too early to make predictions, but it’s possible that we’re in for a repeat of the astounding gubernatorial Trifecta that Democrats pulled off in those same three states in 1998. That event confounded widespread assessments that the South had become a one-party GOP region, and it could happen again, in even more unlikely circumstances.

Our own appraisal begins in Georgia, with one of the surprise winners of 1998, former Governor Roy Barnes. Barnes lost his reelection bid in 2002 to Sonny Perdue, a party-switching state senator, despite the power of incumbency and a huge financial advantage. Since then, Barnes has regularly admitted his mistakes. And, amazingly enough, in the latest Georgia gubernatorial poll, he’s running ahead of every single Republican candidate.

Meanwhile, Georgia Republicans, who have dominated state politics since 2002, are having some serious problems with their own gubernatorial bench. The consistent frontrunner in the polls, longtime insurance commissioner John Oxendine, is awash in ethics allegations about contributions from the insurance companies that he is responsible for regulating. His record is so blatantly bad that none other than Erick Erickson, the Georgia-based proprietor of the nationally influential, hard-core conservative web site RedState, has said he’d vote for Barnes if Oxendine is the GOP nominee.

Rather pathetically, the alternative to Oxendine and the favorite of some party insiders is Representative Nathan Deal of Georgia’s Ninth District (like Perdue, a party-switcher), who recently said he would resign his congressional seat after a health care vote to concentrate on his gubernatorial campaign. As it happens, Deal’s resignation managed to short-circuit a House Ethics Committee investigation into a no-bid state auto-salvage contract that was awarded to a company which Deal controls. The insider buzz in Atlanta is that Deal was motivated to resign, in part, because of panic among Georgia Republican pooh-bahs who worried that Oxendine would walk away with the gubernatorial nomination on name id alone.

The rest of the Republican gubernatorial hopefuls are struggling as well. The entire party, and several of the gubernatorial candidates, were tainted by association with disgraced former House Speaker Glenn Richardson, who was forced to resign after a lurid sex-and-lobbying scandal. The one candidate who seems ethically starchy, Secretary of State Karen Handel, has struggled to raise the money necessary to win, and also suffers from the perception that she’s the unpopular Sonny Perdue’s chosen successor.

All these Republican problems could eventually fade, and Roy Barnes must also navigate a Democratic primary against Attorney General Thurbert Baker, a law-’n-order conservative who is one of the nation’s longest-serving African American statewide elected officials (as well as two other lesser but credible opponents). Nevertheless at present, Barnes—or Baker, if he could somehow upset Barnes—looks entirely viable for November.

Next door in Alabama, you’d think that the Democratic gubernatorial frontrunner, Congressman Artur Davis, wouldn’t stand a chance. He’s a member of the much-hated United States Congress; he’s African American; he’s a close personal friend of Barack Obama; and he’s frequently been tagged, like the president, as an Ivy League-educated, twenty-first-century–style black politician. But the sparse public polling available shows Davis in a very strong position for the general election, assuming that he dispenses with a primary challenge from state agriculture commissioner Ron Sparks, who’s been struggling to raise money. Davis, who has long nursed gubernatorial ambitions, carefully tailored his congressional record to Alabama public opinion: He voted against health care reform in the House, and he was also the first Congressional Black Caucus member (and, for that matter, the first one on the Ways and Means Committee) to call for Charlie Rangel to step aside from his powerful chairmanship.

Meanwhile, there is no real frontrunner in the Republican gubernatorial primary, which bids fair to become an ideological flame war. Back in 2002, the “establishment” candidate, state Senator Bradley Byrne, made the fatal mistake of voting for a-tax reform initiative that was soundly defeated in an emphatic expression of Alabamians’ mistrust of government. Tim James, son of former conservative Democratic and Republican Governor Fob James, was one of the main opponents of that initiative, and he will bring it up constantly. Meanwhile Christian Right warhorse Roy Moore, the famous “Ten Commandments Judge,” is actually running second to Byrne in early polls. All of the dynamics in the race will pull the GOP candidates to the hard-right, while Artur Davis continues to occupy the political center; and his candidacy will almost certainly boost African American turnout to near-2008 levels. That means anything could happen in November.

South Carolina is often thought of as the most Republican of Southern states. But Mark Sanford, the disgraced incumbent governor, has complicated his party’s prospects. Meanwhile, an ideological civil war is brewing that reflects the growing tension between the state’s two Republican senators, right-wing bomb thrower Jim DeMint and the more moderate Lindsey Graham (Graham, long suspect among home-state conservatives for his friendship with John McCain and his occasional bipartisanship, has recently been formally censured by two of South Carolina’s county GOP organizations for a variety of sins). As in Georgia and Alabama, the Republican gubernatorial field is a mess: Nobody is a frontrunner and all the candidates are stampeding to the hard right. And I do mean hard right. In a sign of the times, Lieutenant Governor Andre Bauer, who has few friends in the state’s Republican establishment, delivered a speech comparing recipients of subsidized school lunches to “stray animals” who should no longer be fed unconditionally. While he took a few shots from fellow Republicans for his indiscreet language, nobody disputed, and some praised, his basic premise that any form of public assistance corrupts its recipients and should come with some sort of reciprocal obligation.

The frontrunners in early polls are Bauer and Attorney General Henry McMaster. Upstate Congressman Gresham Barrett, who must overcome the opprobrium of voting for TARP, is close behind. Meanwhile, Sanford’s protégé, state Representative Nikki Haley (who was even endorsed by the governor’s ex-wife), is trying to push the campaign hard right by opposing any expenditure of federal stimulus dollars in this high-unemployment state. At a recent candidate forum, when the rivals were pushed to call themselves “DeMint Republicans” or “Graham Republicans,” Bauer and Haley flatly identified with DeMint, while McMasters and Barrett dodged the question.

On the Democratic side, a Rasmussen poll in December showed the front-running Democrat, State School Superintendent Jim Rex, actually beating Bauer and running within single digits against other GOP candidates. (State Representative Vincent Sheheen is also a credible Democratic candidate). Again, anything could happen, but the assumption that Republicans have a lock on this state’s elections is as dubious as the same assumption back in 1998.

So, at a time when Democrats are despairing of good news, it’s important to understand that the donkey isn’t quite dead, even in the Deep South. There are consequences to Republican extremism and malfeasance in office. And, when GOP candidates battle for first place on the crazy train of contemporary conservatism, it’s Democrats who stand to benefit.

Published on The New Republic (http://www.tnr.com)

Democratic gubernatorial candidates made a case why they were the best choice to lead the state during a Meet Our Next Governor reception Tuesday evening.

State Education Superintendent Jim Rex, attorney Mullins McLeod and Sen. Vincent Sheheen attended the event held at the Aiken Men of Action Building. Additional Democratic gubernatorial candidates Sen. Robert Ford and attorney Dwight Drake were absent from the reception.

Keiana Page, spokeswoman for the South Carolina Democratic Party, said the event was held to get people fired up for the 2010 race.

“We really have some great candidates going into this election,” Page said.

Carol Fowler, the state Democratic Party chair, agreed.

“This series is an opportunity for local democrats to meet our candidates and for our candidates to meet local democrats,” Fowler said.

Aiken was one of several stops for the statewide receptions. Receptions will also be held in Hilton Head, Charleston, Anderson and Pawleys Island.

Fowler said the 2010 race will have a huge impact on the state with unemployment, health care and education as key issues.

Candidates were given four minutes to introduce themselves and their platforms to the crowd.

McLeod said there is no reason why the state should have the highest unemployment rate in the nation, rank at the bottom in education and have one of the highest poverty rates.

A large part of the reason, said McLeod, is that the state continues to elect career politicians and allows lobbyists to run the State House.

McLeod also urged Democratic candidates to continue to promote the party’s principles when trying to win a race instead of adopting a “defeatist mentality.”

“Why don’t we stand on our own issues, our own progressive values,” he said.

Sheheen said it will take hard work, commitment of time and political support for a Democrat to win the race.

“We have been without a vision for a long time in this state,” he said.

If elected, Sheheen said he will work to improve health care in the state.

He also plans to have an active role in job creation and recruiting businesses to South Carolina.

Sheheen said he plans to improve education by reducing class sizes and providing an equal funding system for schools. Rex told the group to focus on what’s at stake for the party in the election.

He said if Republican candidates take the House, Senate and the governor’s race, Democrats in the state can kiss the next decade goodbye.

Rex said people should elect a candidate with executive experience and one they will feel comfortable with representing South Carolina in the nation and the world.

“If you think about all of that, I will live with your decision, and I will trust your decision,” he said.

Democratic candidate for governor Jim Rex may surprise some folks on the campaign trail when they learn that he is an avid hunter and outdoorsman who maintains a certain pride in his annual membership with the local National Wild Turkey Federation.

A gun-toting Democrat? Running for governor you say?

That’s exactly what Jim Rex will be saying to his fellow Democrats (and any moderate Republican or Independent who will listen) over the coming months – give me a chance.

Mr. Rex, along with his wife, Sue Rex, made an early morning stop in Edgefield on Saturday at Park Row Market for the monthly meeting of the Edgefield County Democratic Party. Mr. Rex explained his reasoning for entering the race and answered questions ranging from his stance on healthcare to his explanation of the danger of vouchers for education.

Most importantly, he stressed that the message Democrats would hear before the June primary would be the same message he would offer the rest of the state’s voters as the party’s nominee in the November election in 2010.

“Before the primary I’ll be speaking to mostly Democrats, but others will be listening,” Rex told the audience. “What I say during the primary will be what I say during the general lection. I’m not going to change my message.”

County Councilman Willie Bright says he likes what Rex brings to the table as a candidate.

“He’s a well-rounded man and I feel that he would make a great governor,” he said.

Of course, Rex never strays far from the topic of education after serving s the state’s top school official. He says if South Carolinians care about the education of their children and grandchildren they are going to have to stand and voice that concern.

“Public education is something that we’re really going to have to fight for here in South Carolina,” he said.

But can he win the race for governor?

Rex says he most certainly can.

“I’ve been the underdog before (in the race to become state superintendent of schools) and I’ve won. I know that we can do it again,” he said. “A Democrat can win in South Carolina, but we’re going to have to have the Independent voters and the undecided voters. That’s the reality.”

SUMMERVILLE — Reasons why the next governor of South Carolina should not be a Republican were outlined Saturday by five Democrats running for that office.

The Democrats: attorney Dwight Drake, state Sen. Robert Ford, attorney Mullins McLeod, state Superintendent of Education Jim Rex and state Rep. Vincent Sheheen, each addressed the Dorchester County Democratic Party’s annual Alice J. Cicenia Dinner.

Each candidate maintained that the state needs new leadership to improve education and create new jobs. More than once candidates declared that a Democrat needs to occupy the Governor’s Mansion to help the state overcome what they said is a poor national image resulting from Gov. Mark Sanford’s affair and refusals to take federal stimulus money and U.S. Rep Charlie Wilson’s shout during President Barack Obama’s address to a joint session of Congress.

“After I become governor, we will no longer be the butt of late-night jokes,” Sheheen cited as one of the advantages of having him in the state’s highest office.

Ford of Charleston noted that his campaign is having trouble attracting the kind of financial backing some other candidates enjoy. But he vowed, if elected, to create 150,000 new jobs.

Ford said 100,000 jobs would come from building “the largest movie film studio in South Carolina,” a project he said consultants already are working on. He said more jobs would come from “bringing back the industry that people don’t like” — a reference to video poker.

Ford noted that in South Carolina, the Legislature has more constitutional powers than the governor. But said he would overcome those limitations by being a “people’s” governor, and cited former Louisiana governor and U.S. Sen. Huey Long as an example of what type of governor he wants to be.

Rex, as the state’s highest education official and only Democrat currently holding a statewide office, was afforded two opportunities to speak. He address the dinner as the education superintendent and then as a gubernatorial candidate.

On education, he said much has been accomplished but there is still much to do. Test scores and graduation rates have improved, but many schools remain underfunded and more than half of the state’s public school students live at or below the poverty line.

Rex said he needs to get to the governor’s office to finish the job he wants to do. He urged other elected officials to act “with a sense of urgency” and to display “political courage.”

“You can do the right thing but do it so slowly that you get the same result as doing the wrong thing,” Rex said.

McLeod vowed, if elected, not to seek any other offices. He said that would remove politics from the decision-making process and allow him to bring about what he said are desperately needed fundamental changes at state level.

“It will never be about me. We’ve got to stop the politics. We’ve got to stop the rhetoric and bring the people together,” McLeod said.

Drake of Columbia said he’s never run for office before but cited his work as an attorney and lobbyist in making accomplishments for the state. He said he knows how to bring people together to get jobs and improve education.

Sheheen of Camden said he would create a small business division within the state Department of Commerce. He said the state hasn’t done enough to improve public health care, “and can’t even raise the cigarette tax,” to support medical care. He said he’s voted five times unsuccessfully to raise the cigarette tax and he’s fought to keep nuclear waste from being dumped in South Carolina.